In 2020, the United States of America (US) prepared for a presidential election that threatened to polarise the citizens of the country to the point of civil unrest. Needless to say, the year delivered on its promise. This political unrest and the increasing level of inequality between the haves and have-nots were seen by academics Jack Goldstone and Peter Turchin as strong indicators for what has been termed “The Turbulent Twenties”, a decade of national difficulty between 2020 and 2030, characterised by political, social, and economic turmoil. Goldstone and Turchin posit that the main catalyst for this turbulence within any country is the self-serving actions of elites that lead to a continued widening of the wealth gap between themselves and the poor, as well as their persistent avoidance of tax obligations, the consequence of which is an underfunded government that is unable to meet the infrastructural needs of the nation.
If Goldstone and Turchin are correct, then the turbulent 20s are not a problem the US alone must brace for. South Africa is plagued with rampant poverty and the highest levels of inequality in the world, not to mention the problem of self-serving behaviour of the very elites entrusted with the protection of the interests of South African citizens… in a word… the problem of corruption. If three years in, they haven’t already, prudent enterprises should be incorporating these economic and political risks into their risk management frameworks as relatively high priority. And of course, the elites and the government cannot take all the credit for our South African and global turbulence. The COVID-19 pandemic brought economies across the globe to their knees, interruption of operations, loss of revenue, consequent retrenchments, consequent work overload for remaining staff, key person illness and death, and diminished staff productivity despite individual attempts to manage the effects of the pandemic in their personal lives. Russia and Ukraine go to what, at any moment, could turn into World War 3, and the rest of the world suffers the preceding evil of heavily inflated prices in oil and petroleum. Cue the increased cost of living and operations, and of course, there is the uniquely South African effect of Stage 6 load shedding on economic productivity as well. . .
We are only 3 years into the 21st-century twenties. . .
The point is that it’s good sense for every enterprise (and maybe even every household at this point) to develop and maintain a comprehensive risk management framework. There are seven years left of the twenties. Ladies and gentlemen, we are expecting some turbulence. Please return to your seats and fasten your seatbelts.
